Global Labour Hours in Paid & Unpaid Work: Inequality, Productivity and Structural Transformation 1800-2100 (2025) (WIL WP, under review)

Abstract

This paper constructs global harmonized historical series on labour hours by gender, employment status and sector in 57 core territories – 48 main countries and 9 residual regions – covering all world regions across the 1800-2025 period. We quantify the global decline in labour hours and relate it to the long run rise in productivity, with sizable variations across regions, periods and sectors. At the global level, hourly productivity (net domestic product per work hour) rose from about 0.7€ in 1800 to 16€ in 2025 (PPP 2025 €). In 2025, hourly productivity ranges from 4€ across Subsaharan Africa to 55-60€ in the USA, Sweden, Germany or France. In the longrun, about 35-40% of the rise in productivity was used to reduce labour hours and obtain extra leisure and 60-65% to raise production. We also stress the role of power relations and unpaid labour in the changing structure of labour hours throughout the 1800-2025 period. In particular, we find that the gender gap in hourly pay is currently much larger than usually thought once we include unpaid domestic work. Using this definition, the gender pay gap reaches 40-50% in rich countries, as opposed to 10-20% in conventional estimates. Finally, based on historical trends, we discuss future trajectories for labour hours, productivity, gender inequality and structural transformation over the 2025-2100 period. In our central scenario, we estimate that global hourly productivity could reach about 100€ in all countries by 2100, together with substantial reduction in work hours and gender gaps and large sectoral reallocation of labour time away from the most polluting sectors.

Romaine Loubes

PhD candidate in Economics

Romaine Loubes is a doctoral candidate in economics at the Paris School of Economics, working in trade, labor and development.